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Carver Communications - Index

Carver Communications - 9.1.08 - Index

The San Antonio Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) includes Bexar
County and the seven surrounding counties.
MSAs are used by federal agencies to collect,
tabulate and publish federal statistics.
So much of the demographic data we see
about San Antonio actually applies to the
entire area rather than just San Antonio or
Bexar County. Over the past 15 years the
San Antonio MSA has shown impressive
growth with no significant slowdown
expected anytime soon. As always there are
cycles. But when the cycles are superimposed
on the historical and projected growth
for the area, the low points in the future may
well be higher than today's highpoints. For
example, San Antonio MLS reported nearly
24,000 residential sales in 2007. While this
is down from 2005 and 2006, it’s still the
third highest in history and more than three
times the 7,000 homes sold in 1995. So
while things may be slowing down a bit
across the country, in the San Antonio MSA,
it's still a great time to be an agent.
By Bob Lapinski, Alamo Institute
San Antonio MSA demographic indicators
show it’s still a great time to be an agent
To understand the current market,
you have to understand the past trends. So
let’s take a look at the historical data. First,
let’s define an MSA. The U.S. Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) defines an
MSA as a city with a population of 50,000 or
more, plus the county it is in and adjacent
counties that have a high degree of social
and economic integration with the core
urban area. The San Antonio MSA includes
San Antonio as the core city, Bexar County
and the surrounding counties, along with
Converse, Schertz, Universal City, New
Braunfels, Seguin and many other smaller
cities and towns. The area encompasses over
7,000 square miles and a population of nearly
two million.
Housing in Texas and San Antonio
has appreciated at a fairly steady four percent
for the past two decades. While there
have been variations, the movement has
been positive, and we have not seen the dramatic
market movements seen elsewhere.
Moreover, our housing market has ranked
September 1, 2008 REAL ESTATE NEWSLINE 19
consistently among the most affordable in
the country. The national average for the
median priced home is nearly one-third
higher than the median price for Texas in
actual dollars. While critics might point out
that wages are significantly lower in Texas,
the Real Estate Center calculates a Housing
Affordability Index which compares the
median income to the median home price in
an effort to account for the income differences.
The results are the same - housing is a
bargain here when compared to most of the
country.
Over the past 10 years the population
has grown 22 percent overall which is consistent
with the average for Texas. Bexar
County has seen the biggest numerical
growth, but many of the other counties – like
Kendall, Comal and Guadalupe, have higher
growth rates of 40 to 50 percent or more. All
of the counties showed at least 19 percent
growth, and the impact of major projects in
southern Bexar County such as the Toyota
Plant and Texas A&M University - San
Antonio is yet to be realized.
Education levels in the MSA are
slightly lower than the state average based
on the 2000 Census Bureau statistics. The
statistics are based on an arbitrary age of
over 25, as this is the assumed age for college
completion. So numbers are a little suspect,
but the Census Bureau shows the percentage
with at least a high school diploma
for the MSA as 77 versus 79 for the state.
The percent with an undergraduate degree is
22 for the MSA versus 24 for the state.
The big employers in the MSA are
government agencies. The top three are military
installations including Lackland
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(45,000), Fort Sam (25,000) and Randolph
(15,000). The City of San Antonio and three
school districts are among the other large
government agencies. HEB, USAA and
AT&T are the three top private employers.
Only 10 private employers have more than a
thousand employees. The result is that business
closings do not have a major effect on
the overall San Antonio market. A significant
impact would be caused by the closure
of one of the military installations or the top
few private employers. Fortunately, this is
currently going in the opposite direction
with at least 5,000 new employees scheduled
to be moved into Fort Sam as a result of military
realignments and other actions.
Finally, non-farm employment in the
MSA has grown by almost 22 percent -
adding more than 150,000 jobs over the past
10 years, which is just above the state average.
Additionally, average hourly wages in
the San Antonio MSA are a little over $16,
which is just below the state average of about
$17.50. Across the state, hourly wages range
from an average of $19 in the Dallas-Fort
Worth MSA to about $12.50 in the
Brownsville-Harlingen MSA.
The past 10 to 15 years show a solid
steady growth in all the key areas. While
there have been ups and downs, the trend has
been steadily upward. As we know, San
Antonio is a great place to live and the word
is getting out. When you couple this with
affordable housing, pro business climate and
job growth, San Antonio will continue to
attract families and businesses from across
the country and the world. And in San
Antonio it will continue to be a great time to
be an agent!
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